UK Diesel Compensation Gap Report

Millions of UK diesel drivers may be missing out on between £10 billion and £20 billion in compensation

New analysis of High Court filings, manufacturer disclosures and proportional market-share modelling suggests that more than 80% of potentially eligible UK diesel drivers may not yet have submitted a claim, despite nearly a decade having passed since diesel-emissions issues first emerged.

With public attention currently focused on other consumer investigations, including car-finance mis-selling, there is a growing risk that the scale of the diesel compensation gap is being overlooked.

Key Findings

This report examines how many UK diesel drivers may be affected by the diesel-emissions cheating scandal, how many have claimed, and how much compensation may still be unclaimed. All figures are derived from publicly available data and proportional modelling. The estimates are intended to illustrate order-of-magnitude scale, rather than precise vehicle counts, in the absence of comprehensive manufacturer disclosures.

Two scopes are used throughout this report:

Lower-bound estimate: Eight manufacturers that dominate current UK diesel-emissions litigation and coordinated group actions

Upper-bound estimate: A wider group of approximately twenty manufacturers already named in UK High Court proceedings

The eight core manufacturers used for the lower-bound estimate are: Volkswagen, Ford, BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Nissan, Renault, Jaguar and Land Rover. These brands sit at the centre of the most advanced UK diesel-emissions cases and represent the most immediately relevant group for assessing unclaimed compensation.

The wider group includes all manufacturers named in UK diesel-emissions proceedings to date. In many cases, claims involving these brands remain at earlier or less consolidated stages, but could expand further as litigation develops.

These figures read as a practical lower-bound and a wider potential upper-bound estimate, rather than as competing totals.

Using Volkswagen’s confirmed figure of 1.19 million affected UK vehicles as a baseline (the only manufacturer to have published a UK total), and scaling other manufacturers proportionally based on market share, the number of potentially affected vehicles is estimated to fall between approximately 6.4 million (for the eight core manufacturers) and around 11.4 million (when including the broader set of brands named in proceedings).

Current estimates, drawn from High Court case-management statements, claimant-firm disclosures and UK media reporting, indicate that around 1.6–1.8 million UK drivers have submitted diesel-emissions claims. On a proportional basis, roughly one million of those claims are likely to relate to the eight core manufacturers.

When compared with the estimated pool of 6.4 million potentially affected vehicles for those brands, this suggests that more than 80% of eligible drivers may not yet have begun a claim.

Using Volkswagen’s average UK settlement figure of approximately £2,100 per vehicle, the value of unclaimed compensation is estimated to range from roughly £10 billion to more than £20 billion, depending on how many manufacturers ultimately fall within scope. This range assumes settlement values broadly comparable to Volkswagen’s approved UK compensation scheme and does not account for potential variation by manufacturer, engine type or claim outcome.

Although uncertainty remains, particularly around how many engines were affected for non-Volkswagen brands, the scale of potential unclaimed compensation appears substantial. The figures suggest this is not a niche legal issue, but a major consumer compensation problem affecting millions of drivers.

1. Establishing the Baseline: Volkswagen

Volkswagen is the only manufacturer to have publicly confirmed the number of affected UK vehicles, reporting that approximately 1.19 million diesel models fitted with EA189-series engines required corrective action. This figure provides a clear anchor for estimating the wider market, although it is recognised that not all Volkswagen diesel engines used this platform.

2. Scaling to Other Manufacturers

The next step is to assess the relative size of other major manufacturers’ diesel fleets during the 2009–2018 period and to scale their potentially affected vehicles proportionally. In the absence of brand-specific admissions, this provides a consistent method for estimating scale across manufacturers.

Based on proportional scaling for the eight core manufacturers, the estimated number of potentially affected vehicles is approximately 6.4 million.

Brand-by-brand proportional estimates (rounded):

• Volkswagen (baseline): 1.19 million

• Ford: approximately 1.79 million

• BMW: approximately 0.90 million

• Mercedes-Benz: approximately 0.78 million

• Nissan: approximately 0.82 million

• Renault: approximately 0.41 million

• Land Rover: approximately 0.35 million

• Jaguar: approximately 0.13 million

  
  

Together, these eight manufacturers account for approximately 6.4 million potentially affected vehicles.

These brands are used for the lower-bound estimate because they consistently appear in the largest claimant groups, legal filings and public group-litigation updates, and they represent a significant share of diesel vehicles sold in the UK during the relevant period.

When extending the same proportional method to the wider group of approximately twenty manufacturers named in UK legal actions, the estimate rises to around 11.4 million vehicles, which is used as the upper-range figure throughout this report.

3. Claimant Numbers

Litigation filings and media reporting from 2024–2025 indicate that between 1.6 million and 1.8 million UK drivers have joined diesel-emissions claims.

To make a like-for-like comparison with the eight-manufacturer estimate, claimant numbers are scaled down proportionally. Using market-share proportions, approximately one million existing claims are likely to relate to the eight manufacturers included in the 6.4 million estimate.

4. Unclaimed Compensation

Across the wider group of manufacturers, an estimated 11.4 million vehicles may be eligible. With 1.6–1.8 million claims submitted to date, this suggests that approximately 9.6–9.8 million eligible vehicles may remain unclaimed. On a proportional basis, around 5–5.5 million of these unclaimed vehicles are likely to relate to the eight core manufacturers.

Applying Volkswagen’s average UK settlement figure of approximately £2,100 per vehicle indicates that, even when limited to the core manufacturers, the value of unclaimed compensation would plausibly exceed £10 billion. If the broader twenty-manufacturer estimate proves accurate, the total could be closer to £20 billion.

In practice, more than one individual may be able to bring a claim in respect of the same vehicle. However, in the absence of published averages on claims per vehicle, claimant totals are treated as a proxy for vehicle-level participation, consistent with court and media reporting.

5. Why Many Drivers Have Not Claimed

Millions of diesel drivers may be unaware that they are eligible to claim, or may not appreciate the scale of potential compensation available. With recent public focus on the car-finance mis-selling investigation, diesel-emissions claims may be receiving less attention.

The scale of potential non-participation now appears comparable to early estimates of unclaimed PPI before public awareness increased.

Feedback from consumer forums, public commentary and industry observation highlights several factors that may explain low uptake:

• Confusion with car-finance mis-selling, leading some drivers to assume diesel and finance claims are the same issue

• Concerns about scams or distrust of claims management companies

• Low awareness that manufacturers other than Volkswagen are involved

• Misunderstandings about eligibility, particularly for drivers who no longer own the vehicle

• The belief that it is now too late to claim because diesel-emissions issues first surfaced years ago

• General fatigue with compensation-related advertising and claims

These factors likely combine to keep awareness and engagement lower than expected.

Conclusion

Based on publicly available data, manufacturer market shares and proportional modelling, the number of potentially affected diesel vehicles in the UK is estimated to fall between 6.4 million and 11.4 million. With approximately one million claims (on a proportional basis) believed to relate to the core manufacturers, it appears that more than 80% of potentially affected drivers may not yet have submitted a claim.

Even using conservative assumptions, the potential value of outstanding compensation is substantial and could run into the tens of billions of pounds. With public attention focused on other large-scale consumer investigations, including car-finance claims, there is a risk that the scale of the diesel-emissions issue is being crowded out of public focus.

Taken together, the data suggests the UK diesel-emissions scandal may still represent one of the largest unresolved consumer compensation gaps on record. Without increased awareness, millions of drivers may never realise they are eligible to claim, leaving billions of pounds in potential compensation unclaimed.

References and Public Data Points

• Volkswagen confirmed affected vehicles (UK): Volkswagen publicly stated in 2015–16 that approximately 1.19 million UK diesel vehicles fitted with EA189-series engines were affected. This figure was widely reported by major UK outlets including BBC News, The Guardian and Reuters.

• Number of claimants (UK diesel-emissions litigation): High Court group-litigation case-management statements and UK media reporting in 2024–2025 consistently indicate that between 1.6 million and 1.8 million UK drivers have joined diesel-emissions claims.

• Average UK Volkswagen settlement value: Approved UK compensation schemes for affected EA189 vehicles have produced an average settlement value of approximately £2,100 per vehicle, based on published outcomes from authorised claims processes.

• Manufacturers involved in UK diesel litigation: High Court emissions case schedules and Group Litigation Orders list approximately twenty manufacturers currently named across the main UK diesel-emissions actions.

• Behavioural barriers to claiming: Public commentary, consumer-protection forums and claims-industry surveys consistently highlight confusion with unrelated finance claims, concerns about scams, uncertainty over eligibility for past owners, and general claim fatigue as key drivers of non-participation.

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